AI-powered referrals to e-commerce are rising, but the benefits are heavily skewed toward industry leaders like Amazon and Walmart. New data from Apptopia reveals a 28% year-over-year increase in ChatGPT-driven traffic to retailer mobile apps during the critical Black Friday shopping period (Thanksgiving through Sunday). While this growth indicates AI’s emerging role in online shopping, its current impact remains relatively small, and large retailers are capturing the lion’s share of the gains.
AI’s Growing Influence on E-Commerce
The trend underscores a broader shift in how consumers discover and engage with online deals. According to Apptopia’s analysis of mobile device activity, Amazon now accounts for 54% of ChatGPT referrals, up from 40.5% last year. Walmart’s share has surged even more dramatically, from 2.7% to nearly 15%. This suggests that AI is amplifying the advantages of established players with vast inventories and marketing reach.
The numbers are based on observed consumer behavior, defining a referral as an app session initiated within 30 seconds of a ChatGPT interaction. While these are estimates rather than first-party data, they provide a valuable snapshot of emerging patterns.
Small Slice, Big Potential
Despite the increase, ChatGPT referrals still represent a small fraction of total sessions: only 0.82% of all ChatGPT usage on Black Friday led to a retail app visit. This means that while AI is gaining traction, it is not yet a dominant force in directing consumer traffic. However, Adobe’s separate analysis paints a more significant picture, reporting an 805% year-over-year surge in AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail sites on Black Friday, with those visitors being 38% more likely to make a purchase.
The Broader Trend: AI’s Impact on Retail
The combined data from Apptopia and Adobe highlights a growing trend: consumers are increasingly using AI chatbots to find deals, and those who do are converting at higher rates. Over the entire holiday season (November 1 to December 1), AI traffic has increased by 760%. This suggests that AI is not just driving traffic but also improving conversion rates, making it a valuable tool for retailers.
This trend raises questions about the future of e-commerce, particularly for smaller retailers who may struggle to compete with the AI-driven dominance of larger platforms. The current data suggests that AI is reinforcing existing market power dynamics, rather than leveling the playing field.
Ultimately, the rapid growth of AI-powered referrals indicates a fundamental shift in consumer behavior, one that retailers must adapt to in order to remain competitive.
