For years, global climate policy centered on limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7°F). This was considered the threshold beyond which climate impacts would become dangerously unstable. Now, it is clear that this goal will be surpassed, and the focus must shift toward preparing for a world already exceeding this limit.
The Inevitable Overshoot
The window to stay below 1.5°C has closed. Even with recent slowdowns in greenhouse gas growth, emissions would need to decline at an unrealistic pace to avoid breaching the target. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated, “a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees [Celsius] is now inevitable.” The 2015 Paris Agreement’s goal of “well below” 2°C (3.6°F) is also at risk, with current trends pointing toward a 2.7°F overshoot within the next decade.
This matters because every fraction of a degree intensifies climate extremes. Rising temperatures mean more frequent and severe heat waves, sea-level rise, droughts, floods, and potentially irreversible tipping points in natural systems like collapsing ice shelves and dying forests.
Adaptation Becomes Paramount
With the 1.5°C target missed, adaptation is no longer a secondary concern; it is now critical. Humanity must learn to live in a warmer world, but research into the economic, political, and societal consequences of exceeding this threshold remains severely lacking.
Decarbonization efforts are still underway, with wind, solar, and battery storage becoming increasingly cost-competitive with fossil fuels. This economic incentive may drive emissions reductions beyond purely climate-focused policies. However, even these gains are overshadowed by the reality of already locked-in warming.
A World Transformed
The planet has already warmed by over 2°F compared to pre-industrial levels, resulting in 9 inches of sea-level rise, more intense heat waves, and worsening extreme weather. Years like 2024, the warmest on record, will become more common.
Experts like Andrew Kruczkiewicz emphasize the need to model the human consequences of this warmer world. Political will and funding for adaptation are uncertain, even as disasters become more frequent and severe. Developing countries, which contributed least to climate change, will suffer disproportionately.
Shifting Priorities
Some stakeholders, like Bill Gates, are now prioritizing adaptation over solely curbing emissions. Gates argues that improving lives in a warming world is more urgent than futile attempts to halt warming entirely. Others, like Michael Bloomberg, continue to invest in emissions reduction, particularly targeting potent greenhouse gases like methane.
However, the broader trend suggests a fading commitment to climate action as a matter of environmental protection alone. Major companies are backing away from sustainability pledges, and geopolitical tensions further complicate international cooperation.
The Path Forward
Despite missing the 1.5°C target, every reduction in emissions still matters. Avoiding even fractions of a degree will save lives, protect ecosystems, and reduce economic costs. The transition to cleaner energy has begun, breaking the link between economic growth and emissions.
However, the future remains uncertain. How much further the planet will warm depends on how many greenhouse gases are emitted, making continued action vital. Failing to act is not an excuse to give up; it only heightens the urgency of preparing for a world we have never experienced before and preventing further escalation.
