The private secondary market for tech stocks is experiencing a moment of intense activity, with Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX at the center of investor attention. While Anthropic currently dominates demand, driven by recent events, and OpenAI struggles to maintain momentum, SpaceX’s imminent IPO is poised to reshape the landscape, potentially overshadowing the AI companies’ future public offerings.
Anthropic’s Rise and OpenAI’s Stagnation
Demand for Anthropic shares has surged to unprecedented levels, fueled in part by the company’s highly publicized dispute with the Department of Defense. This standoff, counterintuitively, boosted its public image, positioning it as a rebellious alternative to OpenAI. Investors are reportedly ready to deploy billions into Anthropic, while OpenAI shares remain largely unsold.
Secondary market valuations reflect this shift: OpenAI trades at a discount to its primary valuation, and while the company attempts to control secondary trading through authorized channels, banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are offering shares to high-net-worth clients, albeit with varying fee structures.
The key takeaway: investor sentiment is clearly shifting, with Anthropic capturing the momentum that once belonged more broadly to the AI sector.
SpaceX: The Consistent Outperformer
Unlike Anthropic and OpenAI, SpaceX has bucked the recent correction in private markets. It has consistently increased in value, largely due to disciplined financial management that avoided aggressive pricing in funding rounds. Early investors who entered in 2015 could now see over 100x returns, as SpaceX’s valuation has soared from $12 billion to over $1 trillion.
SpaceX’s confidential IPO filing this week changes the game. Elon Musk reportedly aims to raise $50–$75 billion, making it one of the largest market debuts in history. The filing has already triggered a surge in demand for SpaceX shares on the secondary market, as existing investors anticipate a liquidity event.
The First-Mover Advantage
The timing of SpaceX’s IPO is critical. The private market has finite capital for IPOs, and the first mover will secure the largest share. OpenAI and Anthropic, both reportedly considering public offerings, will likely face increased scrutiny and potentially reduced capital availability.
As Rainmaker Securities president Glen Anderson puts it, “SpaceX is going to soak up a lot of liquidity.” Timing an IPO too early risks testing market receptivity, while waiting for another company to go first could mean missing out on the biggest checks.
In conclusion, the private secondary market is undergoing a major shift. While Anthropic benefits from short-term momentum and OpenAI struggles to regain traction, SpaceX’s imminent IPO will define the market’s appetite for tech exits. The AI companies must carefully consider their timing to avoid being overshadowed by SpaceX’s first-mover advantage.
